Tomorrow brings us at last to the California primary election, so this will be the last of my reports on Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi's run for the Democratic nomination for Lieutenant Governor. No doubt the Commissioner will continue to hold our attention here as he finishes out his term, and particularly as he pushes along his regulations to re-tool the factors permitted to be used in pricing automobile insurance. On the electoral front, Decs&Excs will look to November, and begin coverage of the two nominees to replace Mr. Garamendi as Insurance Commissioner: Republican entrepreneur Steve Poizner and the expected Democratic candidate, current Lieutenant Governor and weight loss advocate Cruz Bustamante.
Many thanks to Walter Olson for his post at PointofLaw.com declaring Decs&Excs to be "Garamendi's blog nemesis," and weclome PointofLaw readers. For those who need to catch up on the backstory in this electoral drama, please start at the bottom of the Decs&Excs Politics of Insurance - Campaign 2006 archive and scroll forward to the present day.
And now, our final preelection report:
When is a Campaign Ad Not a Campaign Ad?
Throughout the Primary race to date, polls have consistently shown John Garamendi in the lead in the campaign for the nomination for Lieutenant Governor. Given how large the pool of undecided voters has been, Garamendi's lead has probably been a result of his being a fixture of California statewide politics for so long: he simply had better name recognition than his opponents Jackie Speier and Liz Figueroa, who have been working the relative obscurity of the state Senate.
Garamendi's previous poll lead notwithstanding, it has been Speier picking up the major endorsements from newspapers and important Democratic figures such as Senators Feinstein and Boxer. Garamendi's biggest-name endorser is Al Gore, with whom Garamendi worked during his stint with the Department of the Interior in the Clinton-Gore Administration.
Beyond endorsements, Jackie Speier has also had the largest campaign war chest, and for the past several weeks has been running a pair of statewide television spots -- one focused on her accomplishments as a legislator, the other focusing on her personal story and her overcoming of severe injuries sustained in the shootout preceding the People's Temple mass suicides at Jonestown, Guiana, in 1978. The combination of spending and endorsements seems to be paying off: the final preelection Field Poll [PDF] released this past weekend reports:
In the contested Democratic primary for Lt. Governor, State Senator Jackie Speier has pulled ahead of State Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi and State Senator Liz Figueroa. The current poll finds Speier the choice of 30% of likely Democratic primary voters, with Garamendi at 25% and Figueroa far behind at 8%. More than one in three voters (37%) are undecided. The current findings are a reversal of voter preferences from April when Garamendi held the lead over Speier.
Bill Bradley's invaluable New West Notes political weblog reported on Friday that the Speier campaign has also filed a complaint against the Commissioner before the state Fair Political Practices Committee, accusing the Garamendi campaign of making an end run around campaign spending limits through the formation of the so-called "Ad Hoc Consumer Coalition for Fair Insurance Rates," or AHCCFIR. (Gesundheit!) AHCCFIR is running an ad, featuring Commissioner Garamendi, responding to the insurance industry's advertising campaign against the Commissioner's proposed auto insurance rate regulations.
The new ad, while it shows Garamendi prominently, makes no mention of his run for Lieutenant Governor. The Speier campaign claims the AHCCFIR ad is actually a Garamendi campaign spot because it is being run in heavy rotation in the San Francisco Bay area -- a region of the state in which the insurance industry's ads are not being run (because the urban counties around the Bay are the counties that are likely to reap the benefit of lower rates under the proposed regulations, while rural counties' rates go up.)
In a report on the Bay Area ABC affiliate, KGO, neither Garamendi nor Speier comes off particularly well, as Garamendi tries to change the subject and Speier goes overboard on restricting political speech:
John Garamendi, candidate for Lt. Governor: 'They're not campaign ads. They are ads that are a direct counter to what the insurance industry is doing. The insurance industry has $2.5 million dollars out there, attacking me for trying to implement the will of the people.'
Garamendi also told us he's not at all concerned about the complaint Speier's camp filed over his ad with the state's Fair Political Practices Commission.
John Garamendi, candidate for Lt. Governor: 'I'm not concerned at all. What I am concerned about is who's side is she on? Has she said anything about implementing the will of the voters?'
Jackie Speier, candidate for Lt. Governor: 'I think what we're going to have to do with these advocacy groups is prevent them from operating during the last three or four months of a campaign in which the person who's created the committee is campaigning.'
I have been unable to find an online copy of the new Garamendi ad; the video version of the KGO story (reachable through the link above) includes a fleeting excerpt.
Those who have followed the Commissioner's claims that the insurers' advertisements are part of an "extortion" campaign will recall that Garamendi's key objection to the ads is that they would negatively affect his campaign for Lieutenant Governor. And yet, in response to Speier's complaints, Garamendi now assures us that his own ads covering exactly the same territory as those of the insurance industry (and featuring Garamendi himself as spokesperson for the "ad hoc" committee of "consumers") have nothing whatever to do with his campaign for Lieutenant Governor.
Here is an easy way to test the question of whether these ads are or are not related to the election: On the day after the primary, when the battle between Garamendi and Speier has been concluded, the dispute over auto insurance rates will still be going on. Will the AHCCFIR ads still be running?
Hmmmmmm, I wonder . . . .
Special Request to California Readers of Declarations & Exclusions:
The primary campaign has been a sorry spectacle all around. Don't let that stop you. Please vote on June 6 for the party and candidates of your choice. An unexercised franchise gets flabby and useless. Pump it up, and cast that ballot!